Guadalajara Chivasvs
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/14/2026, 1:07:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 62.3% | 54.4% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.25 | 21.8% | 23.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.83 | 15.9% | 21.7% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00