Guadalajara Chivasvs
Tigres UANL
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/17/2026, 11:07:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 51.0% | 59.8% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.9% | 23.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 23.1% | 17.1% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00