Guadalajara Chivasvs
Necaxa
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/21/2026, 12:07:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Necaxa
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 68.9% | 75.4% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.20 | 18.0% | 15.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 7.13 | 13.1% | 9.4% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
75.4%
Model confidence
75.4%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60