Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Guabirá 3-1 Aurora
Original prediction
Aurora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.7% | 32.0% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 23.6% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.3% | 44.4% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GuabiráLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraWWWDD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GuabiráAurora
50.9Attack52.6
33.3Defence57.9
45.6Form52.6
44.2Power55.7
1.35xG2.00