Grossetovs
Sambenedettese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone B · 10/3/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grosseto · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Grosseto 1-0 Sambenedettese, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Grosseto 1-3 Sambenedettese
Original prediction
Grosseto
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.4% | 46.3% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.6% | 29.4% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 21.0% | 24.2% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Projected Score
Grosseto 1–0 Sambenedettese
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Grosseto
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Grosseto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrossetoWWDDL
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SambenedetteseLDLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
GrossetoSambenedettese
100.0Attack27.8
100.0Defence65.7
100.0Form34.3
97.0Power45.0
1.18xG0.55