Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grosseto · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grosseto 2-0 Reggiana
Original prediction
Grosseto
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.3% | 37.3% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 28.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.8% | 33.9% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Grosseto
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Grosseto has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrossetoDWLWW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ReggianaLWLLW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
GrossetoReggiana
70.0Attack46.7
56.7Defence70.0
63.3Form56.7
63.9Power58.8
1.37xG1.09