Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Grosseto 0-0 Perugia, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Grosseto 2-0 Perugia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 32.4% | 35.3% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.3% | 30.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.3% | 33.8% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Projected Score
Grosseto 0–0 Perugia
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrossetoDDLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PerugiaLLWDW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
GrossetoPerugia
50.0Attack37.7
50.0Defence64.0
50.0Form41.2
50.0Power48.9
1.02xG0.90