Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grorud 4-2 Rana
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.0% | 63.4% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.74 | 19.0% | 19.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 6.45 | 14.0% | 17.4% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrorudDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
RanaWDWWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GrorudRana
50.0Attack62.7
68.8Defence37.3
56.3Form47.1
59.3Power51.0
2.15xG1.09