Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grorud 1-1 Moss
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.3% | 40.3% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 25.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.5% | 34.4% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrorudWWDWD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MossWLWLD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
GrorudMoss
66.7Attack44.4
66.7Defence66.7
50.0Form66.7
59.3Power61.0
2.10xG1.75