Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grorud 4-0 Lørenskog
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.6% | 65.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.01 | 18.1% | 19.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 6.36 | 14.3% | 15.3% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
65.7%
Model confidence
65.7%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrorudWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
LørenskogWLWDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GrorudLørenskog
57.1Attack52.4
68.3Defence47.6
63.5Form52.4
64.0Power50.4
2.07xG0.91