Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grorud 3-2 Kjelsås
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.3% | 41.1% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 23.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 37.2% | 35.8% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrorudWDWDW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KjelsåsLWLWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
GrorudKjelsås
54.4Attack78.9
68.4Defence54.4
59.6Form75.4
61.7Power69.2
1.61xG1.46