Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
jerv · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Grorud are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while jerv are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and jerv hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 44.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while jerv holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
jerv
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
14.2%
jerv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20