Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grorud 1-3 Follo
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 76.1% | 84.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.29 | 14.4% | 10.2% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 9.62 | 9.4% | 5.2% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
84.6%
Model confidence
84.6%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrorudWWWDW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FolloLLLDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GrorudFollo
62.3Attack39.1
69.6Defence27.5
66.7Form20.3
66.7Power32.1
3.34xG0.61