Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Groningen 2-2 Twente
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 29.0% | 31.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.1% | 24.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 45.9% | 44.6% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GroningenLLWWW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TwenteWWLWD
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GroningenTwente
75.0Attack77.8
16.7Defence66.7
50.0Form66.7
47.7Power69.4
1.74xG2.26