Groningenvs
PEC Zwolle
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groningen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle
Original prediction
Groningen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 62.3% | 62.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 20.6% | 18.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.51 | 17.1% | 18.3% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Groningen
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Groningen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00