Groningenvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groningen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
Groningen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 63.5% | 48.1% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.66 | 20.2% | 23.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 5.77 | 16.3% | 28.5% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Groningen
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Groningen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80