Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groningen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Groningen are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Emmen are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Groningen hold an 8.8-point power-rating edge (59.6 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Groningen holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Groningen
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
10.5%
Groningen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20