Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Groningen 2-5 Ajax
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 26.1% | 32.4% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.9% | 20.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 51.0% | 47.3% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GroningenWWDDL
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxLDDWW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
GroningenAjax
83.3Attack91.7
41.7Defence58.3
58.3Form62.5
59.7Power68.1
2.15xG2.54