Grom Nowy Stawvs
Bałtyk Koszalin
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/3/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grom Nowy Staw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grom Nowy Staw 1-3 Bałtyk Koszalin
Original prediction
Grom Nowy Staw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.5% | 40.9% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.3% | 26.6% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.3% | 32.5% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Grom Nowy Staw
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Grom Nowy Staw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 16 · avg 2.80/3.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80