Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Grobiņa are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Tukums are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tukums hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (32.5 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Virsliga, while Tukums holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tukums
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
12.4%
Tukums has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00