Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Grobiņa 0-2 Riga, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Grobiņa 2-5 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.88 | 8.3% | 18.2% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.04 | 15.0% | 21.8% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 76.7% | 60.0% | -16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.7 pts
Projected Score
Grobiņa 0–2 Riga
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrobiņaWLDDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RigaDWDWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
GrobiņaRiga
25.3Attack90.9
43.4Defence68.7
29.3Form79.8
35.2Power78.2
0.49xG2.89