Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Grünwald are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.60 conceded, while Erlbach are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 22.1-point power-rating edge (36.6 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.2% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 18 · avg 1.20/3.60
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80