Górnik Polkowicevs
Polonia Warszawa
COMPLETEDPoland · Cup · 9/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Górnik Polkowice 0-1 Polonia Warszawa
Original prediction
Polonia Warszawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.68 | 19.2% | 30.7% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.1% | 25.1% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 58.7% | 44.1% | -14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Warszawa
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Polonia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60