Grêmio Catanduvensevs
Independente SP
COMPLETEDBrazil · Paulista Série B · 5/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independente SP · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-4
Grêmio Catanduvense are 0W-0D-4L in their last 4 (LLLL), averaging 0.75 scored and 3.25 conceded, while Independente SP are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Independente SP hold a 70.7-point power-rating edge (3.4 v 74.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 17.0% in the Paulista Série B, while Independente SP holds the strongest overall chance at 93% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Independente SP
Probability
93.3%
Model confidence
17.0%
Independente SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.75/3.25
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80