Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Grimsby are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 24.0-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 53.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60