Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Doncaster · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Grimsby are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Doncaster are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Doncaster hold a 30.3-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 59.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Doncaster holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Doncaster
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Doncaster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00