Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GrIFK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GrIFK 6-1 NJS
Original prediction
GrIFK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.3% | 63.1% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.98 | 18.1% | 19.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 6.21 | 14.5% | 17.1% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
GrIFK
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
GrIFK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrIFKLDDLD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
NJSWLLWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
GrIFKNJS
42.0Attack30.4
40.6Defence10.1
39.1Form14.5
43.0Power21.0
2.70xG0.97