Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GrIFK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GrIFK 1-1 Musa
Original prediction
GrIFK
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 63.7% | 70.7% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.2% | 15.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 18.1% | 13.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
GrIFK
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
GrIFK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrIFKLDWWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MusaDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GrIFKMusa
41.7Attack33.3
43.3Defence0.0
41.7Form21.7
44.5Power21.7
2.70xG1.01