Gresford Athleticvs
Porthmadog
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Porthmadog · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gresford Athletic 0-1 Porthmadog
Original prediction
Porthmadog
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.28 | 21.1% | 14.6% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.3% | 18.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 56.6% | 66.8% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Porthmadog
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Porthmadog has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80