Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grenada · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grenada 1-4 Bonaire
Original prediction
Grenada
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 65.9% | 48.0% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 24.2% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 6.88 | 13.1% | 27.8% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Grenada
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Grenada has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrenadaWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
BonaireLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GrenadaBonaire
33.3Attack33.3
11.1Defence22.2
33.3Form0.0
30.7Power22.9
1.89xG1.54