Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gremio · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Gremio are 3W-0D-0L in their last 3 (WWW), averaging 2.33 scored and 0.00 conceded, while Santos are 4W-0D-0L in their last 4 (WWWW), averaging 1.75 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 0 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (47.3 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Serie A, while Gremio holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gremio
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 2.33/0.00
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.75/0.00