Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gremio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Gremio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Palestino are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Gremio hold a 14.1-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 39.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Gremio holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gremio
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60