Gremiovs
Alianza Lima
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/24/2025, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Gremio are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Alianza Lima are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Alianza Lima hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (53.6 v 62.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60