Greifswalder FCvs
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nordost · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greifswalder FC 2-3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Original prediction
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.0% | 24.9% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.0% | 19.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 46.9% | 55.6% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20