Greifswalder FCvs
Erzgebirge AUE
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nordost · 10/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Greifswalder FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greifswalder FC 1-0 Erzgebirge AUE
Original prediction
Greifswalder FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 36.5% | 44.5% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.3% | 22.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.2% | 33.4% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Greifswalder FC
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Greifswalder FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40