Greenville Triumphvs
Union Omaha
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Omaha · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greenville Triumph 1-3 Union Omaha
Original prediction
Union Omaha
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.38 | 26.4% | 25.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.7% | 26.7% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 47.9% | 48.2% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Union Omaha
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Union Omaha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80