Greenville Triumphvs
Fort Wayne
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fort Wayne · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greenville Triumph 1-3 Fort Wayne
Original prediction
Fort Wayne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.6% | 30.3% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 26.8% | 24.4% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.6% | 45.3% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Fort Wayne
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Fort Wayne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00