Greenville Triumphvs
Charlotte Independence
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlotte Independence · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greenville Triumph 0-3 Charlotte Independence
Original prediction
Charlotte Independence
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.1% | 17.9% | -19.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.2% | 16.6% | -8.6 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 37.7% | 65.4% | 27.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Charlotte Independence
Probability
65.4%
Model confidence
65.4%
Charlotte Independence has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00