World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/9/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greece W 1-3 England W
Original prediction
England W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 35.78 | 2.6% | 28.6% | 26.0 pts |
| Draw | 14.00 | 6.7% | 23.2% | 16.5 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 90.7% | 48.2% | -42.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-42.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
England W
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
England W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80