Greecevs
Netherlands
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Greece · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greece 2-2 Netherlands
Original prediction
Greece
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 28.7% | 38.4% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.4% | 28.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 44.9% | 33.6% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.58 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Greece
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Greece has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GreeceWWLDD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NetherlandsWDWLD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
GreeceNetherlands
50.0Attack50.0
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
83.3Power64.8
1.39xG1.01