Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Greece · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Greece 0-0 Germany
Original prediction
Greece
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 23.2% | 37.8% | 14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 24.3% | 27.6% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 52.5% | 34.6% | -17.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.91 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Greece
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Greece has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GreeceDWWLD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GermanyWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GreeceGermany
55.6Attack33.3
66.7Defence77.8
77.8Form44.4
70.7Power53.1
1.33xG0.92