Grebbestadvs
Vänersborgs FK
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Norra Götaland · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grebbestad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grebbestad 2-3 Vänersborgs FK
Original prediction
Grebbestad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.6% | 59.8% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.3% | 19.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.1% | 20.6% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Grebbestad
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Grebbestad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80