Grand-Saconnexvs
Lugano II
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · 1. Liga Promotion · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grand-Saconnex · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grand-Saconnex 1-2 Lugano II
Original prediction
Grand-Saconnex
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 63.2% | 70.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 19.6% | 15.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.16 | 17.2% | 14.2% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–07%
Predicted outcome
Grand-Saconnex
Probability
70.3%
Model confidence
70.3%
Grand-Saconnex has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40