Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Eibar W · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Granada 0-0 Eibar W
Original prediction
Eibar W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.7% | 34.4% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.1% | 28.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.2% | 37.1% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Eibar W
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Eibar W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GranadaWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Eibar WWWLDW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GranadaEibar W
33.3Attack26.7
40.0Defence73.3
40.0Form66.7
41.1Power58.6
0.97xG1.22