Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gozzano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gozzano 0-4 Ligorna
Original prediction
Gozzano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.1% | 40.8% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.5% | 28.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.4% | 30.9% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Gozzano
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Gozzano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GozzanoWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LigornaDDDD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.75/0.75
BTTS 3/4O2.5 0/4
GozzanoLigorna
66.7Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
1.68xG1.04