Gosport Boroughvs
Poole Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poole Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gosport Borough 1-3 Poole Town
Original prediction
Poole Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.6% | 36.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.8% | 27.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.6% | 36.3% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Poole Town
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Poole Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80