Gornik Zabrzevs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/12/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gornik Zabrze · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Gornik Zabrze
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.8% | 41.7% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 40.5% | 31.5% | -9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Gornik Zabrze
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Gornik Zabrze has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00