Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gorleston · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gorleston 3-4 Bury Town
Original prediction
Gorleston
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.37 | 16.9% | 40.6% | 23.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.17 | 21.8% | 23.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 61.3% | 35.6% | -25.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Gorleston
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Gorleston has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GorlestonLWWLL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Bury TownLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GorlestonBury Town
73.3Attack66.7
60.0Defence50.0
80.0Form50.0
72.0Power56.2
2.27xG1.36