Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varketili · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gonio 1-0 Varketili
Original prediction
Varketili
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.55 | 19.7% | 19.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.6% | 22.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 57.7% | 57.6% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Varketili
Probability
57.6%
Model confidence
57.6%
Varketili has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GonioLDLDW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VarketiliDWDWD
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GonioVarketili
50.0Attack88.3
66.7Defence80.0
58.3Form80.0
57.7Power79.8
0.84xG1.61