Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gonio · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gonio 1-0 Irao
Original prediction
Gonio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.0% | 39.6% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.1% | 29.2% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 24.9% | 31.2% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Gonio
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Gonio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GonioLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
IraoDLDLW
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GonioIrao
46.4Attack56.5
65.2Defence59.4
55.1Form50.7
55.3Power55.8
1.22xG1.08